The UK government is reportedly planning to weaken its zero emission vehicles (ZEV) mandate, which currently requires 80 per cent of all new cars sold in the UK to be electric by 2030 on the road to a 2035 ambition of 100 per cent.

Numerous outlets in the UK reported on Monday that the country’s government was planning to water down its 2030 targets, and plans to meet with the UK car industry this week to discuss a potential shift in policy.

All reports, however, suggest that the new 2030 target could fall from 80 per cent to anywhere between 50 to 70 per cent – a potentially significant hit to the country’s electrification and its efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

The UK car industry has been pleading for a review of the ZEV mandate for some time now, declaring that demand for electric vehicles (EVs) does not match political ambition, even despite significant investments, government incentives, and improvements to charging infrastructure.

“Targets alone do not cut emissions – new vehicle uptake does,” said Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). “Consumers and businesses will only switch when conditions – and costs – are right.”

According to Hawes, in an update published late last week ahead of the latest rumours, “consumers consistently cite familiar reasons to hold off: cost, uncertainty about infrastructure, whether an EV will meet their driving needs.

“Add in a prospective additional tax in the form of a pence per mile VED charge, and such wariness is natural,” he said.

But while the UK’s carmakers and trade unions have continued to lobby the government for years to ease the mandate, proponents of the ZEV mandate warn that any weakening of the target will only serve to harm the UK’s long-term electrification and climate goals.

Transport & Environment (T&E) said the SMMT’s claims lean “heavily on selective evidence, unsupported assertions, and misleading interpretations that exaggerate challenges while ignoring clear signs of significant market progress.”

T&E pointed to data which showed that BEV sales had increased by 31 per cent year-on-year in May and 56 per cent year-on-year in April.

“Let’s be clear: the SMMT has spent years overstating the challenges of the EV transition while downplaying industry inaction to justify weakening the ZEV mandate,” said Tim Dexter, T&E UK vehicles policy manager.

“The reality is much simpler. Carmakers that moved early, like Renault, are now gaining market share in the UK and globally thanks to great new EV models. Those that delayed are not victims of policy; they are betting on political backtracking. That is not a strategy, it is a gamble that risks leaving them behind in a rapidly electrifying global market.”

The 2030 ban on petrol and diesel vehicles was introduced in 2020 by former Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson, before it was then pushed back by then Conservative prime minister Rishi Sunak in 2023.

It was under Sunak that the phased targets for EV sales under the ZEV mandate were introduced, with annual targets ramping up to 100 per cent by 2035 – though any targets after 2030 were yet to be enshrined in legislation.

Labour, which ousted the Conservatives in July 2024, pledged to bring the petrol and diesel ban back to 2030, and now appears unwilling to cement any ban at all.

“Investors in the UK have been absolutely clear that the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate is vital for driving investment into our charging infrastructure,” said James Alexander, CEO of the UK Sustainable Investment and Finance Association (UKSIF).

“Any attempt to water down these targets could send warning signals to these investors about the government’s long-term commitment to electrifying our transport network. This could threaten future financing for charging infrastructure, at a time when more and more consumers are seeking to switch to electric vehicles.”

The UK’s seesawing on its EV targets mirrors what has already been taking place on the European Continent, after the European Commission proposed in December dropping the European Union’s effective ban on new combustion-engine cars from 2035 by allowing continued sales of some non-electric vehicles.

The Commission had come under intense pressure from Germany, Italy, as well as the European car industry, to relax its plan to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars and vans from 2035. Instead of a 100 per cent cut in allowed emissions, the Commission has proposed dropping that to a 90 per cent cut.

Such a move, however, could see battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales slip by as much as 50 per cent, according to T&E, who analysed the potential impact of the Commission’s proposal.

“It’s like hedging your bets when there’s only one horse in the race,” said Lucien Mathieu, cars director at T&E, speaking in February.

“The world is going electric, but the EU proposal would divert investment into other technologies that won’t deliver for the climate or the economy. The current 2035 target provides the investment certainty Europe needs to scale up EV production and compete globally.

“The proposed changes would mean keeping the combustion engine and hybrid alive and rewarding the laggards.”

See The Driven’s detailed EV sales data here: Australian electric vehicle sales by month in 2026; by model and by brand.

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Practically no modern EV launch has gone off without a hitch. Whether you’re a startup like Fisker or part of the establishment like Volvo, the last several years have proven it’s fair to expect pain when ramping up production of a new electric model. Software, supply chains, battery issues, quality—they can all create speed bumps or, worse yet, full-on disasters. 

Rivian is banking its entire future on the R2 rollout being smooth and successful. That starts with 20,000 to 25,000 units shipped in 2026, as we reported last month. TechCrunch puts that target into context in a great analysis out Thursday. You should go read it for the full picture. 

But here’s one takeaway: By aiming to sell 20,000 R2s within six months, the outlet says Rivian plans “one of the fastest EV launches in U.S. history.” Only the Tesla Model Y hit that milestone in less time, TechCrunch found. Some took much longer than that. The Chevy Blazer EV, dogged by software issues and a pause in sales, didn’t hit 20,000 cumulative sales until over a year after it launched. 

The R2 is Rivian’s best chance yet to hit real scale and turn a profit—to have a “Model Y moment,” if you will. But the U.S. EV market could not be more different than when Tesla’s best seller landed. At the same time, the Model Y’s success proves that there’s a big market for EVs that get things right. 

Many factors will determine how quickly Rivian can ramp things up, but a couple are on my mind. There’s the manufacturing issue, of course. The startup says it’s much better prepared for this launch than it was for the R1S or R1T. 

Another question is pricing. What Rivian has going for it is a loyal fanbase that’s clamoring to buy an R2. But what will it cost when production starts, and will that meet the market? We’ll know more when the company reveals more about the R2 lineup on March 12. 

Contact the author: Tim.Levin@InsideEVs.com 

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