VANS are the only commercial vehicle segment in Australia showing an improving sales trajectory, narrowing combined full-year 2025 losses of 10.8 per cent to just 0.4 per cent across the first quarter of 2026, driven almost entirely by popularity of the Toyota HiAce.
By contrast medium-duty truck sales plunged 35.4 per cent in Q1 to their worst first-quarter result since 2001, heavy-duty trucks dropped 11.1 per cent and light-duty trucks fell 10.2 per cent.
Combined ute sales shed 2468 units for a 4.3 per cent decline, with the dominant 4×4 category swinging from growth of 4.7 per cent in calendar year 2025 to a six per cent loss in Q1 of this year.
Combining all van segments from sub-2.5-tonne GVM light vans through to 8.0-tonne heavy commercials, 8416 vans were delivered in Q1 2026, just 33 fewer than the same period last year.
The 2.5-3.5-tonne GVM class, which accounts for the bulk of the market, improved from a 12 per cent decline across 2025 to a one per cent loss in Q1.
“We’re seeing a clear rebalancing of the market,” a TIC spokesperson said.
“While overall volumes have come back from the highs of recent years, demand for light-duty vans remains comparatively strong, particularly in metropolitan delivery applications.”
Toyota’s sixth-generation HiAce, now in its seventh year of production, accounted for 3336 van sales in Q1, a 15 per cent year-on-year increase that earned a commanding 59.3 per cent share of the 2.5-3.5-tonne segment.
Buyers appear more inclined to put their money down on a known quantity than take a chance on alternatives.
The relative stability of the van segment is thought to reflect operators pivoting towards lower-cost, urban-focused freight solutions, particularly in last-mile delivery where e-commerce volumes continue to support courier and logistics fleets.
Vans offer lower upfront costs, reduced operating complexity and a faster return on investment compared with rigid and articulated trucks.
“In a tighter operating environment, fleets are prioritising efficiency and flexibility,” the TIC spokesperson said.
“Vans provide a compelling solution for urban freight tasks where utilisation and cost control are critical.”
The result is a commercial market where light-duty vehicles are gaining prominence as operators recalibrate fleet strategies.
“The market isn’t collapsing, it’s evolving,” the TIC spokesperson said.
“What we’re seeing is a shift towards right-sized transport solutions, and vans are a major beneficiary of that change.”
Beyond the HiAce, Hyundai’s Staria Load was second in the medium segment at 661 units, down 3.5 per cent on Q1 of 2025 (a facelifted model is imminent), followed by the Ford Transit Custom at 546 (down 27.7 per cent).
LDV’s ageing G10 and G10+ found 325 buyers (down 36.8 per cent) and the same brand’s Deliver 7 and eDeliver 7 were down 4.4 per cent with 263 sold.
The Renault Trafic dropped 24.5 per cent to 154 units, while the Mercedes-Benz Vito and eVito rose 13.9 per cent to 123 and the Volkswagen Transporter climbed 19.4 per cent to 111 units.
Small vans up to 2.5 tonnes GVM – comprising the Renault Kangoo, Peugeot Partner and Volkswagen Caddy in petrol, diesel and battery-electric guises – declined 3.9 per cent across the first quarter.
Large vans between 3.5 and 8.0 tonnes, mostly diesels including the Fiat Ducato, Ford Transit, Iveco Daily, LDV Deliver 9, Mercedes-Benz Sprinter, Peugeot Boxer, Renault Master and Volkswagen Crafter, recorded a 1.6 per cent increase.
Truck Industry Council CEO Tony McMullan attributed the broader commercial vehicle downturn in part to Middle East conflict and its effect on fuel costs.
“There is little doubt that the events in the Middle East over the past six weeks and the ensuing effect of fuel prices in Australia has placed the road freight industry under substantial financial stress,” he said.
“Business confidence in the sector is suffering considerably and understandably the significant increase in operational costs for transport companies may lead many organisations to review their immediate fleet expansion and/or fleet replacement plans.”
Mr McMullan said April sales, but particularly May and June, “will give a better indicator of the, likely, tougher times ahead”.
For the full year of 2025, TIC data showed total heavy vehicle sales of 45,191 – the third-best result on record but still an 11.9 per cent decline representing 6086 fewer units than 2024.
Last year, heavy-duty truck sales fell behind light-duty truck sales for the first time in a decade.
“Despite the challenging economic environment that prevailed across the Australian economy in 2025, it was pleasing to see new truck sales hold up well in 2025, culminating in the third-best sales result for the heavy vehicle sector last year,” Mr McMullan said.
In 2025, van sales held up better than medium and heavy-duty truck sales, which fell 18 and 16.7 per cent respectively, though light-duty trucks proved more resilient with a decline of 5.8 per cent compared with vans at 8.1 per cent.
Battery-electric van sales remain modest but are establishing a foothold across the small and medium segments.
The Geely-backed Farizon Supervan registered 41 units year to date as a new entrant, while the Volkswagen ID. Buzz Cargo managed 26 and the Peugeot E-Expert recorded 25.
Electric variants of the LDV Deliver 7 and Mercedes-Benz Vito are also contributing small volumes, though combined BEV van deliveries across all segments remain well short of triple figures.