Market Insight: NVES debut winners and losers

THE New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) Regulator’s first report found Mazda, Nissan and Subaru amassing the largest liabilities for exceeding fleet average tailpipe CO2 emissions targets while BYD, Toyota and Tesla were eligible for the lion’s share of credits. 

Covering 58 regulated entities (vehicle importers, suppliers and manufacturers) that entered 620,947 vehicles on the Register of Approved Vehicles (RAV) between 1 July and 31 December 2025, the report found that 40 entities (68 per cent) beat the 2025 emissions target. 

If an entity has an Interim Emissions Value (IEV) below zero, it has met or exceeded the target and accrued NVES units for the 2025 reporting period, while entities with an IEV above zero have accrued NVES liabilities for 2025. 

During the second half of last year, more than 17.2 million NVES units were generated, which can be traded with entities that did not meet the target or used to offset potential penalties as the NVES target gets tougher each year. 

The regulator’s report outlines the average emissions numbers for each vehicle category (Type 1 being cars, SUVs and light off-road vehicles, and Type 2 being utilities, vans, and heavy off-road vehicles), as well as the average performance of covered vehicles. 

In the 2025 reporting period, 12 per cent of all covered vehicles had zero tailpipe emissions, with 40 entities supplying vehicles in this category. 

Of note, it appears the liabilities of Mazda, Nissan, Subaru and Hyundai vindicate Toyota Australia’s relatively early push toward widespread availability of hybrid technology.  

Mazda had 38,465 vehicles recorded on the RAV and accrued 508,517 liabilities, the highest of any car-maker, and more than twice that of second-placed Nissan (215,261). 

Subaru also fared poorly with 13,187 vehicles recorded and 139,635 liabilities, while Hyundai, with 39,863 vehicles on the RAV and a compelling new energy model offering, sold sufficient high-emitting models to rack up 84,563 liabilities. 

At the other end of the scale, BYD had a combined 39,603 vehicles covered on the RAV and an interim emissions value of -6,282,824, followed by Toyota with 115,504 vehicles and a -2,890,652 IEV score. 

Intriguingly, Isuzu Ute Australia finished the first NVES reporting period in the black, despite offering only the diesel-powered D-Max ute and MU-X large SUV, with Ford also staying on the right side of the ledger last year even though the majority of its vehicle sales are Ranger utes and Everest large SUVs. 

The results show a net surplus of some 15.9 million NVES units, meaning there is now a market for trading NVES credits – perhaps critical to the survival of those OEMs with an ICE-only or ICE-heavy range, especially as NVES regulations tighten. 

Otherwise, those importers have around two years to address the balance of their liabilities by removing the heaviest polluters from their portfolio. 

If not, they face an infringement notice and penalty, which will be charged at $50 multiplied by their final emissions value as of February 2028 (doubling to $100 if an entity appeals and loses or fails to pay by the due date). 

Type 1 vehicles (which accounted for 71 per cent of the data) averaged 114 grams per kilometre (against a 2025 target of 144g/km and a headline limit of 141g/km), while Type 2 vehicles (the remaining 29 per cent) averaged 199 grams per kilometre (against a targeted 214g/km and a headline limit of 141g/km). 

In 2026, the target drops to 117g/km for Type 1 vehicles and 180g/hm for Type 2, tightening each year with a 2029 target of 58g/km (Type 1) and 110g/km (Type 2). 

According to the regulator, the 2025 results indicate that the NVES is poised to “support more low-emissions vehicles on Australian roads, contributing to a reduction of CO2 emissions in future years”. 

The table below provides information and data on the end of 2025 performance period results for each regulated entity (OEM). 

While several entities have their results split across multiple importer names, GoAuto has attempted to reconcile these entities as familiar brand names. 

*Data supplied courtesy of the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard Regulator.